Air Force
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
33  Kyle Eller JR 31:25
45  Patrick Corona SR 31:29
247  Matt Dorsey JR 32:25
262  Dan Caddigan SR 32:26
349  Andrew Johnston SO 32:40
394  Daniel Shellhouse SR 32:47
631  Jason Engel JR 33:13
746  Jacob Bilvado FR 33:24
761  Andrew Milliron SO 33:26
National Rank #23 of 308
Mountain Region Rank #5 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 55.4%
Most Likely Finish 24th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 1.6%
Top 20 at Nationals 23.4%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 57.9%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Kyle Eller Patrick Corona Matt Dorsey Dan Caddigan Andrew Johnston Daniel Shellhouse Jason Engel Jacob Bilvado Andrew Milliron
Washington Invitational 10/02 656 31:53 31:36 32:32 32:39 32:12 33:14 33:01 32:53
Rocky Mountain Shootout 10/03 1157 33:24
D1 Pre-Nationals (Red) 10/17 582 31:34 31:24 32:14 32:27 32:27 32:51 33:25
Mountain West Championships 10/30 498 31:22 31:22 32:03 31:59 33:13 32:37 34:34 33:27 33:21
Mountain Region Championships 11/13 622 31:11 31:13 32:56 32:34 33:08 32:31 34:25
NCAA Championship 11/21 31:08 31:59





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 55.4% 21.2 508 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.3 1.3 2.0 1.8 2.2 2.5 3.0 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 2.8 1.8 1.0 0.4
Region Championship 100% 5.1 133 1.9 8.1 20.1 27.7 33.4 6.9 1.6 0.2



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kyle Eller 94.9% 50.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.1
Patrick Corona 88.4% 51.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.5
Matt Dorsey 55.4% 169.2
Dan Caddigan 55.5% 170.9
Andrew Johnston 55.4% 195.1
Daniel Shellhouse 55.4% 205.8
Jason Engel 55.4% 233.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kyle Eller 8.9 1.4 4.4 5.3 5.9 6.9 7.1 6.8 6.8 5.9 6.2 5.3 4.6 4.2 3.9 3.0 3.2 2.9 2.4 2.1 1.5 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9
Patrick Corona 10.6 0.7 2.0 3.6 4.5 5.4 5.2 6.3 5.9 6.2 6.5 5.7 5.9 4.5 4.2 4.2 3.4 3.4 3.0 2.5 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.4 1.5 1.3
Matt Dorsey 33.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.7 2.8
Dan Caddigan 34.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.7 2.1 2.5
Andrew Johnston 41.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4
Daniel Shellhouse 44.5 0.0 0.1
Jason Engel 57.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 1.9% 100.0% 1.9 1.9 2
3 8.1% 82.3% 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.4 1.4 6.7 3
4 20.1% 63.8% 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.9 2.1 1.5 7.3 12.8 4
5 27.7% 57.3% 0.8 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.3 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.6 11.8 15.9 5
6 33.4% 47.8% 1.6 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.3 1.6 2.8 17.5 16.0 6
7 6.9% 30.4% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 4.8 2.1 7
8 1.6% 1.3% 0.0 1.6 0.0 8
9 0.2% 0.2 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 55.4% 1.9 1.0 1.0 1.6 3.4 2.7 3.4 4.3 3.8 4.9 6.1 7.1 6.6 7.5 44.6 1.9 53.5




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Louisville 88.3% 1.0 0.9
Washington 77.6% 1.0 0.8
Boise State 57.0% 1.0 0.6
Colorado St. 53.4% 2.0 1.1
Texas 38.3% 1.0 0.4
Southern Utah 36.0% 1.0 0.4
Minnesota 25.4% 1.0 0.3
Eastern Michigan 22.0% 1.0 0.2
Florida 8.5% 1.0 0.1
Georgia 6.3% 1.0 0.1
Cornell 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 2.3% 1.0 0.0
Portland 2.2% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 2.1% 1.0 0.0
Washington St. 0.7% 2.0 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 0.5% 1.0 0.0
North Texas 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Yale 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Duke 0.0% 1.0 0.0
New Mexico 0.0% 1.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 4.8
Minimum 1.0
Maximum 12.0